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Annual forecast · IMO working list

Meteor showers

The peak nights of the year's showers, with the Moon's interference worked out for each one — which is usually the thing that decides whether it is worth setting an alarm.

Times are UTC throughout, because an instant is the same everywhere and a local rendering would hide which day an event actually falls on for you. Nothing here knows or asks where you are. Every computed instant carries an uncertainty, and most of those are measurements rather than estimates: every build checks the lunar phases against NASA's own published table, the equinoxes, solstices and Earth's apsides against the US Naval Observatory's, and the planetary positions the remaining events are derived from against JPL Horizons. The Moon's perigee and apogee are the one family with no external table to check against, and their cards say so.

7 events

  • Orionids peak

    Annual forecast

    The second shower fed by Halley's Comet (with the Eta Aquariids), producing fast meteors radiating from near Orion's raised club. The Moon is 80% lit on the peak night, which will wash out all but the brightest meteors.

    How exact: The peak night recurs annually and is reliable to about a day. The hour of maximum and the rate are not: observed rates routinely land at a fraction or a multiple of the nominal figure.

    Activity window
    2 October – 7 November
    Nominal ZHR
    20 — the standardised rate for a radiant overhead in a perfectly dark sky, which no real site achieves. Expect fewer.
    Entry speed
    66 km/s
    Parent body
    Comet 1P/Halley
    Moon on the peak night
    80% lit (computed)
    Where this date comes from

    Recurs every year at approximately the same point in Earth's orbit. The date shown is the expected one; the exact hour and the strength vary from year to year.

    Source: IMO Meteor Shower Calendar working list

    Uncertainty: The peak night recurs annually and is reliable to about a day. The hour of maximum and the rate are not: observed rates routinely land at a fraction or a multiple of the nominal figure.

    Where it applies: Seen from both hemispheres, though the radiant's altitude — and so the rate — still depends on your latitude.

  • Leonids peak

    Annual forecast

    Usually modest, but famous for spectacular storms roughly every 33 years when Earth crosses dense filaments of Tempel–Tuttle's debris. Meteors are the fastest of any major shower. The Moon is 55% lit on the peak night and will brighten part of the sky.

    How exact: The peak night recurs annually and is reliable to about a day. The hour of maximum and the rate are not: observed rates routinely land at a fraction or a multiple of the nominal figure.

    Activity window
    6 – 30 November
    Nominal ZHR
    15 — the standardised rate for a radiant overhead in a perfectly dark sky, which no real site achieves. Expect fewer.
    Entry speed
    71 km/s
    Parent body
    Comet 55P/Tempel–Tuttle
    Moon on the peak night
    55% lit (computed)
    Where this date comes from

    Recurs every year at approximately the same point in Earth's orbit. The date shown is the expected one; the exact hour and the strength vary from year to year.

    Source: IMO Meteor Shower Calendar working list

    Uncertainty: The peak night recurs annually and is reliable to about a day. The hour of maximum and the rate are not: observed rates routinely land at a fraction or a multiple of the nominal figure.

    Where it applies: Seen from both hemispheres, though the radiant's altitude — and so the rate — still depends on your latitude.

  • Geminids peak

    Annual forecast

    The richest annual shower, producing bright, slow, often colourful meteors. Unusually, its parent is a rocky asteroid rather than a comet. The Moon is 20% lit on the peak night and will brighten part of the sky.

    How exact: The peak night recurs annually and is reliable to about a day. The hour of maximum and the rate are not: observed rates routinely land at a fraction or a multiple of the nominal figure.

    Activity window
    4 – 20 December
    Nominal ZHR
    150 — the standardised rate for a radiant overhead in a perfectly dark sky, which no real site achieves. Expect fewer.
    Entry speed
    35 km/s
    Parent body
    asteroid (3200) Phaethon
    Moon on the peak night
    20% lit (computed)
    Where this date comes from

    Recurs every year at approximately the same point in Earth's orbit. The date shown is the expected one; the exact hour and the strength vary from year to year.

    Source: IMO Meteor Shower Calendar working list

    Uncertainty: The peak night recurs annually and is reliable to about a day. The hour of maximum and the rate are not: observed rates routinely land at a fraction or a multiple of the nominal figure.

    Where it applies: Seen from both hemispheres, though the radiant's altitude — and so the rate — still depends on your latitude.

  • Quadrantids peak

    Annual forecast

    One of the strongest annual showers, but with a very sharp peak lasting only a few hours. The radiant lies in northern Boötes, in the region of the former constellation Quadrans Muralis. The Moon is 13% lit on the peak night, so moonlight is not a problem.

    How exact: The peak night recurs annually and is reliable to about a day. The hour of maximum and the rate are not: observed rates routinely land at a fraction or a multiple of the nominal figure.

    Activity window
    28 December – 12 January
    Nominal ZHR
    110 — the standardised rate for a radiant overhead in a perfectly dark sky, which no real site achieves. Expect fewer.
    Entry speed
    41 km/s
    Parent body
    asteroid (196256) 2003 EH1
    Moon on the peak night
    13% lit (computed)
    Where this date comes from

    Recurs every year at approximately the same point in Earth's orbit. The date shown is the expected one; the exact hour and the strength vary from year to year.

    Source: IMO Meteor Shower Calendar working list

    Uncertainty: The peak night recurs annually and is reliable to about a day. The hour of maximum and the rate are not: observed rates routinely land at a fraction or a multiple of the nominal figure.

    Where it applies: Best from the northern hemisphere, where the radiant climbs highest. The shower is not absent elsewhere, only poorer.

  • Lyrids peak

    Annual forecast

    A medium-strength shower with a history stretching back over 2,600 years. The radiant rises near the bright star Vega; occasional outbursts have been recorded. The Moon is 95% lit on the peak night, which will wash out all but the brightest meteors.

    How exact: The peak night recurs annually and is reliable to about a day. The hour of maximum and the rate are not: observed rates routinely land at a fraction or a multiple of the nominal figure.

    Activity window
    16 – 25 April
    Nominal ZHR
    18 — the standardised rate for a radiant overhead in a perfectly dark sky, which no real site achieves. Expect fewer.
    Entry speed
    49 km/s
    Parent body
    Comet C/1861 G1 (Thatcher)
    Moon on the peak night
    95% lit (computed)
    Where this date comes from

    Recurs every year at approximately the same point in Earth's orbit. The date shown is the expected one; the exact hour and the strength vary from year to year.

    Source: IMO Meteor Shower Calendar working list

    Uncertainty: The peak night recurs annually and is reliable to about a day. The hour of maximum and the rate are not: observed rates routinely land at a fraction or a multiple of the nominal figure.

    Where it applies: Best from the northern hemisphere, where the radiant climbs highest. The shower is not absent elsewhere, only poorer.

  • Eta Aquariids peak

    Annual forecast

    Fast meteors from the debris of Halley's Comet, best seen from the Southern Hemisphere and the tropics in the hours before dawn. The Moon is 0% lit on the peak night, so moonlight is not a problem.

    How exact: The peak night recurs annually and is reliable to about a day. The hour of maximum and the rate are not: observed rates routinely land at a fraction or a multiple of the nominal figure.

    Activity window
    19 April – 28 May
    Nominal ZHR
    50 — the standardised rate for a radiant overhead in a perfectly dark sky, which no real site achieves. Expect fewer.
    Entry speed
    66 km/s
    Parent body
    Comet 1P/Halley
    Moon on the peak night
    0% lit (computed)
    Where this date comes from

    Recurs every year at approximately the same point in Earth's orbit. The date shown is the expected one; the exact hour and the strength vary from year to year.

    Source: IMO Meteor Shower Calendar working list

    Uncertainty: The peak night recurs annually and is reliable to about a day. The hour of maximum and the rate are not: observed rates routinely land at a fraction or a multiple of the nominal figure.

    Where it applies: Best from the southern hemisphere, where the radiant climbs highest. The shower is not absent elsewhere, only poorer.

  • Perseids peak

    Annual forecast

    The most popular Northern-Hemisphere shower, reliable and rich, arriving on warm August nights. Meteors are swift and often leave persistent trains. The Moon is 84% lit on the peak night, which will wash out all but the brightest meteors.

    How exact: The peak night recurs annually and is reliable to about a day. The hour of maximum and the rate are not: observed rates routinely land at a fraction or a multiple of the nominal figure.

    Activity window
    17 July – 24 August
    Nominal ZHR
    100 — the standardised rate for a radiant overhead in a perfectly dark sky, which no real site achieves. Expect fewer.
    Entry speed
    59 km/s
    Parent body
    Comet 109P/Swift–Tuttle
    Moon on the peak night
    84% lit (computed)
    Where this date comes from

    Recurs every year at approximately the same point in Earth's orbit. The date shown is the expected one; the exact hour and the strength vary from year to year.

    Source: IMO Meteor Shower Calendar working list

    Uncertainty: The peak night recurs annually and is reliable to about a day. The hour of maximum and the rate are not: observed rates routinely land at a fraction or a multiple of the nominal figure.

    Where it applies: Best from the northern hemisphere, where the radiant climbs highest. The shower is not absent elsewhere, only poorer.

Four kinds of date

Computed
Derived on this platform from published position series. The algorithm and its version are recorded, and the stated uncertainty is the real one.
Published prediction
Taken from an authority's own published prediction. AsteriaStar reproduces it and links the document; it does not recompute it.
Annual forecast
Recurs every year at approximately the same point in Earth's orbit. The date shown is the expected one; the exact hour and the strength vary from year to year.
Planned
A date somebody intends to meet. Planned dates move, often by months. The timestamp of the last confirmation is shown so you can judge how much the date is worth.

Take this away as a calendar file: subscribe or download the next year of events, or read it as JSON from the Open Data API. Both carry the basis, the method or source, and the uncertainty for every entry.